Applying machine learning to predict future adherence to physical activity programs.

BackgroundIdentifying individuals who are unlikely to adhere to a physical exercise regime has potential to improve physical activity interventions. The aim of this paper is to develop and test adherence prediction models using objectively measured physical activity data in the Mobile Phone-Based Physical Activity Education program (mPED) trial. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first to apply Machine Learning methods to predict exercise relapse using accelerometer-recorded physical activity data.MethodsWe use logistic regression and support vector machine methods to design two versions of a Discontinuation Prediction Score (DiPS), which uses objectively measured past data (e.g., steps and goal achievement) to provide a numerical quantity indicating the likelihood of exercise relapse in the upcoming week. The respective prediction accuracy of these two versions of DiPS are compared, and then numerical simulation is performed to explore the potential of using DiPS to selectively allocate financial incentives to participants to encourage them to increase physical activity.Resultswe had access to a physical activity trial data that were continuously collected every 60 sec every day for 9 months in 210 participants. By using the first 15 weeks of data as training and test on weeks 16-30, we show that both versions of DiPS have a test AUC of 0.9 with high sensitivity and specificity in predicting the probability of exercise adherence. Simulation results assuming different intervention regimes suggest the potential benefit of using DiPS as a score to allocate resources in physical activity intervention programs in reducing costs over other allocation schemes.ConclusionsDiPS is capable of making accurate and robust predictions for future weeks. The most predictive features are steps and physical activity intensity. Furthermore, the use of DiPS scores can be a promising approach to determine when or if to provide just-in-time messages and step goal adjustments to improve compliance. Further studies on the use of DiPS in the design of physical activity promotion programs are warranted.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01280812 Registered on January 21, 2011

Efficacy of personalized cognitive counseling in men of color who have sex with men: secondary data analysis from a controlled intervention trial.

In a previous report, we demonstrated the efficacy of a cognitively based counseling intervention compared to standard counseling at reducing episodes of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) among men who have sex with men (MSM) seeking HIV testing. Given the limited number of efficacious prevention interventions for MSM of color (MOC) available, we analyzed the data stratified into MOC and whites. The sample included 196 white MSM and 109 MOC (23 African Americans, 36 Latinos, 22 Asians, eight Alaskan Natives/Native Americans/Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, and 20 of mixed or other unspecified race). Among MOC in the intervention group, the mean number of episodes of UAI declined from 5.1 to 1.6 at six months and was stable at 12 months (1.8). Among the MOC receiving standard counseling, the mean number of UAI episodes was 4.2 at baseline, 3.9 at six months and 2.1 at 12 months. There was a significant treatment effect overall (relative risk 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.35-0.998). These results suggest that the intervention is effective in MOC

Use of Antihypertensive Agents and Association With Risk of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease: Focus on Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers.

Background Our objective was to determine patterns of antihypertensive agent use by stage of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and to evaluate the association between different classes of antihypertensive agents with nonrenal outcomes, especially in advanced CKD . Methods and Results We studied 3939 participants of the CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) study. Predictors were time-dependent angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker , β-blocker, and calcium channel blocker use (versus nonuse of agents in each class). Outcomes were adjudicated heart failure events or death. Adjusted Cox models were used to determine the association between predictors and outcomes. We also examined whether the associations differed based on the severity of CKD (early [stage 2-3 CKD ] versus advanced disease [stage 4-5 CKD ]). During median follow-up of 7.5 years, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor use plateaued during CKD stage 3 (75%) and declined to 37% by stage 5, while β-blocker, calcium channel blocker, and diuretic use increased steadily with advancing CKD . Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor use was associated with lower risk of heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.97) and death (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.90), regardless of severity of CKD . Calcium channel blocker use was not associated with risk of heart failure or death, regardless of the severity of CKD . β-Blocker use was associated with higher risk of heart failure (hazard ratio, 1.62; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-2.04) and death (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.43), especially during early CKD ( P<0.05 for interaction). Conclusions Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker use decreased, while use of other agents increased with advancing CKD . Use of agents besides angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers may be associated with suboptimal outcomes in patients with CKD

Volunteer Participation in the Health eHeart Study: A Comparison with the US Population.

Direct volunteer "eCohort" recruitment can be an efficient way of recruiting large numbers of participants, but there is potential for volunteer bias. We compared self-selected participants in the Health eHeart Study to participants in the National Health And Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2013-14, a cross-sectional survey of the US population. Compared with the US population (represented by 5,769 NHANES participants), the 12,280 Health eHeart participants with complete survey data were more likely to be female (adjusted odds ratio (ORadj) = 3.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.9-3.5); less likely to be Black, Hispanic, or Asian versus White/non-Hispanic (ORadj's = 0.4-0.6, p < 0.01); more likely to be college-educated (ORadj = 15.8 (13-19) versus ≤high school); more likely to have cardiovascular diseases and risk factors (ORadj's = 1.1-2.8, p < 0.05) except diabetes (ORadj = 0.8 (0.7-0.9); more likely to be in excellent general health (ORadj = 0.6 (0.5-0.8) for "Good" versus "Excellent"); and less likely to be current smokers (ORadj = 0.3 (0.3-0.4)). While most self-selection patterns held for Health eHeart users of Bluetooth blood pressure cuff technology, there were some striking differences; for example, the gender ratio was reversed (ORadj = 0.6 (0.4-0.7) for female gender). Volunteer participation in this cardiovascular health-focused eCohort was not uniform among US adults nor for different components of the study

Thiopurines are negatively associated with anthropometric parameters in pediatric Crohn's disease.

AimTo determine the distribution of anthropometric parameter (AP)-z-scores and characterize associations between medications/serum biomarkers and AP-z-scores in pediatric Crohn's disease (CD).MethodsCD patients [< chronological age (CA) 21 years] were enrolled in a cross-sectional study. Descriptive statistics were generated for participants' demographic characteristics and key variables of interest. Paired t-tests were used to compare AP-z-scores calculated based on CA (CA z-scores) and bone age (BA) (BA z-scores) for interpretation of AP's. Linear regression was utilized to examine associations between medications and serum biomarkers with AP-z-scores calculated based on CA (n = 82) and BA (n = 49). We reported regression coefficients as well as their corresponding p-values and 95% confidence intervals.ResultsMean CA at the time of the study visit was 15.3 ± 3.5 (SD; range = 4.8-20.7) years. Mean triceps skinfold (P = 0.039), subscapular skinfold (P = 0.002) and mid-arm circumference (MAC) (P = 0.001) BA z-scores were higher than corresponding CA z-scores. Medications were positively associated with subscapular skinfold [adalimumab (P = 0.018) and methotrexate (P = 0.027)] and BMI CA z-scores [adalimumab (P = 0.029)]. Azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine were negatively associated with MAC (P = 0.045), subscapular skinfold (P = 0.014), weight (P = 0.002) and BMI (P = 0.013) CA z-scores. ESR, CRP, and WBC count were negatively associated, while albumin and IGF-1 BA z-scores were positively associated, with specific AP z-scores (P < 0.05). Mean height CA z-scores were higher in females, not males, treated with infliximab (P = 0.038). Hemoglobin (P = 0.018) was positively associated, while platelets (P = 0.005), ESR (P = 0.003) and CRP (P = 0.039) were negatively associated with height CA z-scores in males, not females.ConclusionOur results suggest poor efficacy of thiopurines and a possible sex difference in statural growth response to infliximab in pediatric CD. Prospective longitudinal studies are required

Past alcohol consumption and incident atrial fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

BackgroundAlthough current alcohol consumption is a risk factor for incident atrial fibrillation (AF), the more clinically relevant question may be whether alcohol cessation is associated with a reduced risk.Methods and resultsWe studied participants enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC) between 1987 and 1989 without prevalent AF. Past and current alcohol consumption were ascertained at baseline and at 3 subsequent visits. Incident AF was ascertained via study ECGs, hospital discharge ICD-9 codes, and death certificates. Of 15,222 participants, 2,886 (19.0%) were former drinkers. During a median follow-up of 19.7 years, there were 1,631 cases of incident AF, 370 occurring in former consumers. Former drinkers had a higher rate of AF compared to lifetime abstainers and current drinkers. After adjustment for potential confounders, every decade abstinent from alcohol was associated with an approximate 20% (95% CI 11-28%) lower rate of incident AF; every additional decade of past alcohol consumption was associated with a 13% (95% CI 3-25%) higher rate of AF; and every additional drink per day during former drinking was associated with a 4% (95% CI 0-8%) higher rate of AF.ConclusionsAmong former drinkers, the number of years of drinking and the amount of alcohol consumed may each confer an increased risk of AF. Given that a longer duration of abstinence was associated with a decreased risk of AF, earlier modification of alcohol use may have a greater influence on AF prevention